Mike Cowan recently released his updated forecast for the semiconductor industry. I posted Mike’s numbers previously on my old blog which has been completely static since I left Semiconductor Insights in July. Mike has graciously offered to continue to publish his forecasts here at semiconDr. In return, I will be posting them in a more timely manner going forward. The predictions are based on the Cowan LRA model. If you want more details of his analysis or just need to get in touch with Mike, he is always prompt and polite (two qualities usually lacking on my blogs) by email:

mikedcowan(at)verizon.net.

The Cowan analysis continues to predict improvements as the industry recovers. The latest forecast uses actual sales numbers compiled from member companies in the WSTS that were released in August.

Chip sales forecasts continue to improve over previous editions of the LRA. Mike has shown 2009 and 2010 both up by 1.5%.  That would bring 2009 in at around  $208B or a drop of 16% over last year’s revenues. The model predicts 2010 to finish much stronger at $225B up 8% over 2009. The rising tide in semiconductor sales is expected to start this quarter with an improvement of 2.5% over the fourth quarter of 2008.

A key facet of the Cowan LRA model is the Momentum Indicator. Although the August numbers show this dropping, “This is still good news indicating a continuation in the global S/C sales growth recovery over the near term but at a slower rate,” as Mike points out. Slower yes, but the July uptick in the Momentum Indicator was a record 24.1%. The August number is a lower but very robust 12.1%.

More about Mike Cowan

Mike Cowan, the developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global S/C sales, is a 44-year semiconductor industry veteran. He has a 36-year history at IBM's Microelectronics Division in East Fishkill, N.Y., where he was involved in many facets of semiconductor development and manufacturing engineering, including both technical and management responsibilities.

During his last ten years at IBM, as a senior technical staff member, he was involved in strategy development and competitor/competitive analysis focused on the semiconductor industry, and had developed a number of top-down and bottom-up models to predict the dynamics of the semiconductor industry.

Following his retirement from IBM in 2002 he became an independent semiconductor industry analyst providing his monthly forecasts to The Semiconductor Reporter website from 2002 to 2006, to Future Horizons during 2007 and 2008, and presently to various websites reporting on the “comings and goings” of the industry including EE Times’ Silicon Strategies, weSRCH.com, and the semiconDr.com blog.

Cowan earned both BS and MS degrees in physics at Wayne State University in Michigan, and an MS in electrical engineering at Syracuse University in New York.